Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
13%
−0.1%
Negotiations falter over pricing, delivery obligations, or political risk, leaving Iran without expected Russian support before peak winter demand. This is less likely than a limited agreement because both governments have strong strategic incentives to announce progress, but operational disagreements remain credible.
What it moves
- Energy−0.5%
- Utilities−0.3%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
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