Provisional Arrangement

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The two sides announce political agreement but defer binding volumes, payment terms, and route details. This is consistent with the long record of Russia-Iran energy memoranda that move faster diplomatically than operationally.

What it moves

Energy+0.1%
Utilities+0.1%
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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