Possible scenario
Hilton Comeback Upset
10% Chance
Hilton overcomes the September polling deficit through a large anti-incumbent swing, weak Democratic turnout, and a highly favorable national environment for Republicans. This would be a major political surprise in California, but still mostly a state-level event for financial markets.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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