Becerra Comfortable Win

Xavier Becerra’s 18-point polling lead holds through the fall, helped by California’s Democratic registration advantage and Steve Hilton’s limited path in statewide turnout. This is the base case because the race appears structurally favorable to Becerra after Kamala Harris declined to run and Democrats unified around him.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.