From todaySpaceX and Tesla Negotiate Terms for Potential Merger

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  Framework Deal Reached

  Tesla and SpaceX are most likely to reach a nonbinding framework because committees already exist, Musk has publicly backed the plan, and both sides are negotiating terms rather than denying talks. The key unresolved points are valuation, voting control, debt allocation, and protections for minority Tesla shareholders.

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  Negotiations Drag On

  The parties continue talks but cannot quickly settle the exchange ratio, Musk’s voting rights, or how to combine Tesla’s public float with SpaceX’s newly public shares. This outcome is plausible because both boards face market pressure after recent share declines and need more time to justify terms.

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  Opposition Intensifies

  Shareholder, legal, and regulatory pressure grows before the boards can finalize terms. Because Musk is on both sides of the transaction and the deal would combine a major automaker with a dominant launch and satellite-network operator, governance and antitrust scrutiny are likely to become central issues.

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  Deal Is Shelved

  The boards could decide that valuation, control, and regulatory barriers are too large after the share-price weakness following the midterms. A narrower commercial partnership would preserve operational cooperation without forcing Tesla shareholders to absorb SpaceX valuation risk.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.3% · Industrials −0.2% · Telecommunications +0.1%