Possible scenario
Republican Narrow Hold
27% Chance
The YouGov poll overstates Democratic strength in several close states, or Republican turnout closes the gap in the final month. Republicans retain a narrow Senate majority, limiting Democratic subpoena power and preserving more of Trump’s legislative agenda.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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