Possible scenario
Control Remains Unclear
16% Chance
Several races sit inside recount, provisional-ballot or runoff thresholds, preventing a clear Senate-control call on election night. This is less likely than a clean Democratic or Republican outcome but plausible given close polling in Georgia, Maine, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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