Possible scenario
Democratic Senate Flip
47% Chance
The YouGov poll reinforces a late-cycle shift toward Democrats as Trump’s approval remains near 31%. Democrats hold vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire while gaining enough Republican-held seats, most plausibly Maine and North Carolina, to retake the Senate.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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