Regulatory Moat Forms

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The CFTC’s proposed exclusive oversight regime becomes the central legal framework for U.S. prediction markets. Federal supervision creates a compliance moat for Kalshi, but the scope of approved contracts remains the key unresolved question.

What it moves

Finance+0.2%
Technology+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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