This criticism follows an Oct. 19 survey of 511 registered voters that showed Democrat Annie Andrews leading Republican Graham Nordone 48.5% to 45.0% for U.S. Senate. The poll, which has a 4.8% margin of error, indicated ticket-splitting in a state Donald Trump won by 18 points, as Republican Wilson led Democrat Johnson 53.1% to 44.9% for governor. Separate data from Kalshi shows that Andrews' winning probability has risen to 18% from 12% at the end of September.
