Possible scenario
Isolated Pollster Failure
45% Chance
VoteHub and FiftyPlusOne treat the AI-respondent finding as a vendor-specific quality-control failure rather than evidence of a wider polling crisis. The Graham-Andrews Senate poll and the SC01 Lacore poll receive warning labels or are removed from averages while both aggregators move to replacement vendors.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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