Exchange Failure Tail

A lower-probability tail outcome is that Binance cannot reconcile stolen assets, client claims, and reserve attestations quickly enough to prevent a withdrawal halt. This would evoke comparisons with FTX, although Binance’s larger operating footprint and claimed loss coverage could still limit bank-system spillovers.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.