Wider Regional Escalation

12%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A lower-probability but higher-impact path involves a successful Houthi strike, confirmed Iranian operational support, or an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. This would shift the event from symbolic harassment into a material Gulf security shock.

What it moves

Consumer Services−2.0%
Energy+1.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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