Possible scenario
Sustained Missile Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis continue missile and drone attacks against Saudi airports and military bases to offset battlefield losses and pressure Riyadh into concessions. This outcome would raise regional risk premia, though it would still fall short of a direct Gulf-wide conflict unless energy or shipping assets are hit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.