Possible scenario
Oman-Mediated Pause
23% Chance
Oman and the UN use the Riyadh airport strike to push both sides back toward a short de-escalation window. Saudi Arabia may accept a pause if Houthi launches stop and if the arrangement does not require formal concessions on disputed territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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