Possible scenario
Calibrated Saudi Response
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with targeted airstrikes against Houthi launch sites and air-defense assets, but avoids a broad ground campaign. This is the most likely path because Riyadh needs to restore deterrence after repeated airport attacks while limiting risks to oil facilities and regional shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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