Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
The Kremlin answers the refinery campaign with larger missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The most likely form is escalation inside Ukraine, though a lower-probability spillover risk affects Black Sea and NATO-border assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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