Possible scenario
Russia Stabilizes Fuel
20% Chance
Russia contains the immediate fuel shock through rapid repairs, rerouting crude, inventories, imports from friendly suppliers, and tighter air defenses around refineries. The refinery campaign remains damaging but markets fade the most severe supply-loss assumptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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