Possible scenario
Refinery Attrition Continues
45% Chance
Ukraine sustains a campaign against Russian refining rather than crude production, keeping pressure on domestic fuel availability and exportable diesel. Moscow can ration and reroute some supplies, but repairs at large, complex refineries such as Omsk and Ukhta take time.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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