Republican Surge Wins

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The registered-party early-ballot lead does not translate directly into votes, and Republicans produce a large Election Day turnout advantage. Joni Ernst wins another term despite Democrats banking more ballots before Election Day.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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