Democratic Edge Holds

42%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Registered Democrats’ early-ballot lead proves large enough to withstand a Republican Election Day advantage. Rob Sand narrowly defeats Sen. Joni Ernst, giving Democrats a pickup in a race already rated a toss-up.

What it moves

Energy−0.3%
Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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