Possible scenario
Count Remains Unclear
16%
−0.2%
The early-ballot lead signals Democratic strength, but independents, late-arriving mail ballots, and Election Day votes keep the race unresolved. Iowa becomes one of the last Senate races to be called.
What it moves
- Energy−0.1%
- Finance−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.