Possible scenario
Sustained Infrastructure Campaign
30% Chance
Russia continues using ballistic missiles and drones against traction substations, depots, and grid nodes serving Kyiv transport. The scenario is plausible because the background timeline shows repeated strikes on Kyiv power and internet systems over the prior two weeks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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