Possible scenario
Partial Kyiv Recovery
38% Chance
Ukrainian emergency crews, Kyiv City State Administration, and Ukrenergo stabilize parts of the power network quickly enough to restart some metro and tram operations. This is the most likely path because Kyiv has repeatedly restored critical services after prior Russian strikes, though full service remains vulnerable to follow-on attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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