Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
22% Chance
The attack accelerates Western decisions on air-defense transfers, especially Patriot interceptors, NASAMS missiles, and mobile generators. This path is credible because Zelensky had already sought Patriots after Kyiv missile deaths and the paralysis of all electric transit raises political pressure in Washington, Berlin, and Brussels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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