Gulf Shipping Escalates

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The earlier confirmation of Hormuz shipping attacks keeps the tail risk high. A further security deterioration would amplify the Qatar supply shock because LNG buyers would price both lost Qatari capacity and higher transit risk through the Gulf.

What it moves

Energy+4.2%
Non-Energy Materials−3.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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