Possible scenario
Plan Reversed
10%
−0.9%
A fresh Russian attack or strong allied opposition makes sanctions relief politically untenable. The administration either suspends the review or uses the episode to threaten tougher measures, reversing the recent de-escalatory signal.
What it moves
- Energy+0.9%
- Finance−0.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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