Narrow Conditional Waiver

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump authorizes a limited Treasury license for dealings with Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, likely the Russian Direct Investment Fund, but ties it to Ukraine talks and specific diesel or reconstruction channels. This fits the recent pattern of exploring sanctions relief without fully normalizing U.S.-Russia financial ties.

What it moves

Finance+0.5%
Energy−0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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