Broader Russia Thaw

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump moves beyond a limited waiver and starts dismantling parts of the Russia sanctions regime to accelerate negotiations with Moscow. This would be a material geopolitical policy shift, though still short of full normalization because many energy, banking, and defense sanctions would remain.

What it moves

Finance+1.3%
Industrials+1.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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