Democratic Midterm Surge

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump’s 29% approval rating hardens the view that the 2026 midterms become a referendum on tariffs, inflation, and weak confidence. Democrats gain momentum in House races and make Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona more competitive.

What it moves

Technology+0.4%
Non-Energy Materials−0.3%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
US dollar▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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