Possible scenario

Legal Containment Holds

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington moves to contain the diplomatic damage by treating the matter as a judicial and immigration issue rather than a political dispute. Flávio Bolsonaro remains in the United States temporarily, but under court supervision and with cooperation channels open to Brazil.

What it moves

Finance+0.2%
Industrials+0.1%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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