Possible scenario

Brazil Escalates Case

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazilian authorities treat the payment for Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight as evidence of obstruction and possible foreign facilitation. The Supreme Federal Court and Federal Police move quickly because the escape followed a travel ban, passport cancellation, and a missed surrender deadline.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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