Export Controls Tighten

27%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington interprets the RTX order surge as an attempt to route around AI accelerator curbs and moves to restrict shipments more explicitly. Nvidia is forced to cancel or redesign a large share of China-bound supply, increasing the risk that the $70 billion order book is not monetized.

What it moves

Technology−2.2%
Telecommunications−0.3%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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