• 

  

  38%0.0%

  Staged Delivery Reset

  Nvidia treats the 1% delivery cap as a near-term allocation and compliance bottleneck rather than a permanent cancellation of Chinese orders. ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent keep the bulk of their $70 billion commitments alive while negotiating delivery timing, chip specifications and licensing documentation.

• 

  

  27%−1.2%

  Export Controls Tighten

  Washington interprets the RTX order surge as an attempt to route around AI accelerator curbs and moves to restrict shipments more explicitly. Nvidia is forced to cancel or redesign a large share of China-bound supply, increasing the risk that the $70 billion order book is not monetized.

  Technology −2.2% · Telecommunications −0.3%

• 

  

  22%−0.8%

  China Substitution Push

  Beijing uses Nvidia’s 1% delivery limit to justify a harder pivot toward domestic AI hardware. Regulators, state funds and large cloud buyers redirect incremental demand toward Huawei, Cambricon, SMIC-linked supply chains and other local alternatives.

  Technology −1.3% · Telecommunications −0.4%

• 

  

  13%+0.9%

  Negotiated Workaround

  Nvidia, Chinese customers and regulators find a commercial structure that preserves part of the demand without breaching the most sensitive export restrictions. The workaround could involve offshore cloud capacity, leasing, foreign subsidiaries or tightly capped shipment quotas.

  Technology +1.5% · Telecommunications +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.