China Substitution Push

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Beijing uses Nvidia’s 1% delivery limit to justify a harder pivot toward domestic AI hardware. Regulators, state funds and large cloud buyers redirect incremental demand toward Huawei, Cambricon, SMIC-linked supply chains and other local alternatives.

What it moves

Technology−1.3%
Telecommunications−0.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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