Possible scenario
Secondary Sanctions Expand
23% Chance
Washington uses the automaker and rail designations as a bridge to broader secondary-sanctions enforcement. The next steps focus on foreign brokers, component suppliers, shipping agents, and banks that help designated Iranian industrial groups obtain parts or financing.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.