Possible scenario
Evasion Networks Adapt
18% Chance
Iran preserves a meaningful share of parts inflows through non-dollar payments, transshipment, barter, and re-labeling via regional intermediaries. This is plausible because previous maximum-pressure campaigns often slowed Iranian procurement rather than stopping it outright.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.