Possible scenario
Contained Sectoral Squeeze
42% Chance
The sanctions mainly disrupt Iran's domestic auto and rail supply chains without spilling into oil exports, banks, or regional security. This is the base case because Washington appears to be widening maximum pressure through industrial choke points rather than immediately escalating to energy-market measures.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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