Talks Break Down

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Diplomacy could fail if Tehran insists on upfront funds release or Washington demands verified Hormuz reopening first. A breakdown would quickly rebuild the war and supply-disruption premium in oil.

What it moves

Energy+3.5%
Consumer Services−2.9%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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