Possible scenario
Comprehensive Settlement
+1.6%
A broader settlement is less likely but possible if Khamenei accepts an escrowed funds release and Washington agrees to sanctions relief sequencing. This would remove a large share of the geopolitical oil premium in one move.
What it moves
- Energy−4.0%
- Consumer Services+3.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
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