Sequenced Hormuz Deal

its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is a limited, sequenced diplomatic arrangement rather than a full peace deal. Qatar, the U.S., and Iran appear to be narrowing differences over whether frozen funds are released before or after Iran eases the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

What it moves

Energy−2.1%
Consumer Services+2.0%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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