Republicans have held the Kansas Senate seat for 94 years, and Donald Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024. A senior Senate GOP aide described the current environment as a "perfect storm," noting that the president is not helping the incumbent's efforts to hold the seat. Despite the closing gap in polling, Decision Desk HQ maintains that Marshall is the favorite with a 77% win probability in its forecast.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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Hamilton Leads Marshall 54-24 Among Independents in Tightest Kansas Senate Race in 94 Years
US Politics16 days ago
Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Senator Roger Marshall are locked in a dead heat at 45% each in the latest NYT/Siena poll of the general electorate. A breakdown of that data shows Hamilton dominating among independent voters with 54% to Marshall's 24%. Other recent surveys reflect a similarly narrow race, with a Trafalgar poll showing Hamilton at 44.4% to Marshall's 43.5% and a Decision Desk HQ average placing Hamilton at 45.6% and Marshall at 45.4%.
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