Possible scenario
Marshall Holds Seat
36% Chance
Roger Marshall overcomes weak independent numbers by consolidating Republicans and maximizing turnout in rural western and central Kansas. This remains plausible because Kansas retains a strong Republican baseline despite recent abortion-rights and gubernatorial crossover votes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.