Possible scenario
Race Remains Uncalled
16% Chance
The election is close enough that mail, provisional, and county canvass processes determine the outcome. This scenario is less likely than a clean win by either candidate but realistic given the tight polling and the importance of independents.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.