The current lead is an increase from a 1.2 point advantage for Talarico in mid-September. While Paxton leads white voters 48% to 43%, Talarico maintains leads among Black voters (56% to 32%), Hispanic voters (48% to 46%), and Asian voters (72% to 0%). Talarico also leads voters aged 18 to 29 by 76.5% to 6.5%, though 45.7% of the total sample identify as Republican compared to 33.6% as Democratic.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Story
Talarico Leads Ken Paxton 47.1% to 43.6% in Texas Senate Poll
US Politics11 days ago
James Talarico's lead in the race for a Texas U.S. Senate seat expanded to 3.5 percentage points over Ken Paxton in a recent Trafalgar Group poll of 1,086 likely voters. Conducted from October 6 to October 8, the survey found Talarico with 47.1% support, Republican Paxton at 43.6%, and candidate Ted Brown at 1.8%, while 7.6% of respondents remained undecided. The poll carries a 2.9 percentage point margin of error.
Looking for more context or analysis?
Tilt chat provides reliable, tailored insights, alerts, and automations.