Possible scenario
Paxton Late Comeback
33% Chance
Ken Paxton recovers from the October polling deficit by consolidating Republicans and benefiting from a late national GOP turnout push. Talarico remains competitive, but the Democratic coalition underperforms outside the major metropolitan counties.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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