Possible scenario
Talarico Breaks Open
14% Chance
The October poll proves to be an early signal of a broader anti-Paxton break rather than a narrow Democratic edge. Talarico expands his lead through superior cash, heavy advertising, and continued Republican unease about Paxton's legal and ethical baggage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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