Possible scenario
Talarico Narrowly Wins
45% Chance
James Talarico converts his polling and fundraising edge into a narrow November victory over Ken Paxton. Paxton retains strong Republican loyalty, but suburban erosion, negative views from his legal controversies, and Democratic turnout in the Texas Triangle are enough to flip the seat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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