Republicans Retain Control

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans outperform late generic-ballot polling and retain at least one chamber, limiting the immediate need for the White House to govern around Congress. Trump still uses executive authority, but the most confrontational strategy is deferred or reserved for narrow intraparty disputes.

What it moves

Finance+0.5%
Energy+0.5%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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