House Flips Only

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats win the House while Republicans narrowly retain the Senate, leaving President Trump without full congressional control but not facing a unified Democratic legislature. The White House relies on OMB, agency directives, and litigation-tested executive authorities, while Senate Republicans block many Democratic countermeasures.

What it moves

Technology−0.3%
Business Services−0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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